2nd Weakest 20 Metro Area

[link to Brookings Institute study in title]

Overall Performance

The map below classifies the 100 largest metro areas into 5 categories (quintiles), based on their average rank across a series of four indicators: employment change from peak; unemployment rate change from one year ago; gross metropolitan product change from peak; and housing price index change from one year ago.



Of course our local rag decides to look solely at the economic indicators (61 of 100) with the following rosy headline: "Twin Cities are No. 61 in measure of recession's toll". While somewhat misleading, the headline is true -- IF you take the housing market out of the equation. To me thats kinda like getting a $1000.00 check and then depositing into the bank, which in turn takes $500.00 out of the deposit to pay down your overdraft fee's. True you got a $1000.00 check, but that's not what you ended up with.

Take a look at the several interactive maps in the study. You'll find some interesting information. The Twin Cities is going backwards but we're not the only metro area heading backwards. The entire "rust belt" is going backwards, with the exception of Madison, Des Moines and Omaha-Council Bluffs. I'm sure that had Sioux Falls been ranked in the top 100 metro areas, they would have ranked better then average. Of course California is in the shitter but Texas ranks in the top 20% in nearly every aspect tested.

Here are a few highlights:
"The recession has had highly varied impacts on different metropolitan areas, even within the same broad regions of the country." In March 2009 the unemployment rate ranged from 5.1 percent in Provo to 17.5 percent in Modesto. From the beginning of 2008 through the beginning of 2009, home prices fell by 30.6 percent in Stockton but rose by 4.7 percent in Houston.

"A few metropolitan areas are beginning to showing signs of economic recovery, although none has completely recovered." McAllen (TX) is the only metropolitan area that saw growth in both employment and output during the first quarter of 2009. Employment also rose in New Haven and Baton Rouge, while output also increased in Seattle, Austin, Virginia Beach, Washington, Richmond, San Jose, and Riverside.

"There are two distinct "Manufacturing Belts." Economic pain is widespread in Midwestern metro areas that depend heavily on the auto industry and its supply chain. Most metro areas in Michigan and Ohio have experienced employment and output declines exceeding national averages. Several, including Dayton, Detroit, and Youngstown, began losing jobs two to three years earlier than the U.S. economy as a whole. At the same time, job losses have been more modest, and housing prices have risen slightly, in many Northeastern metro areas that have less auto-oriented manufacturing sectors[.]

"There are also two distinct Sun Belts." Large swaths of the South and West, particularly metropolitan areas in Florida, Arizona, Nevada, and inland California, have suffered severe employment, output, and home value declines over the past year due to the broader housing fallout. Wages in those metro areas have risen rapidly, most likely due to a slowdown in less-skilled migration to those areas, and to disproportionate losses of lower-paying jobs. Yet parts of the Southwest and Deep South—including metro areas in New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Louisiana—have performed relatively well, experiencing less severe job losses, relatively large wage gains, and modest home price increases. Specializations in energy and government, large amounts of federal hurricane recovery funding for the Gulf Coast, and smaller increases in housing prices during the early and mid-2000s may all help to account for their better performance.

"Concentrations of jobs in "eds and meds" and government seem to have shielded some metro areas from dramatic job losses." ompared to a national employment decline of 3.7 percent from the fourth quarter of 2007 through the first quarter of 2009, metro areas with specializations in education and health care saw employment drop by an average of only 2.0 percent, and those specialized in government/military employment saw average job losses of 1.3 percent.

"Tourism-specialized metro areas suffered relatively large employment declines." Metro areas with job concentrations in arts, entertainment, and recreation, such as Orlando, Las Vegas, and Bradenton, experienced 4.0 percent employment declines on average[.]

"A few banking centers have been hard hit, but metro areas specializing in insurance have suffered less." The New York and Charlotte metro areas, the nation’s two foremost banking centers, have suffered in different ways during the recession. Charlotte has suffered deep recent employment losses and its unemployment rate rose dramatically since early 2008, while New York has actually shed jobs at a lower rate than the national average but has experienced steeper declines in output and housing prices. Meanwhile, metro areas specialized in the less-affected insurance industry, such as Des Moines, Hartford, and Omaha, have experienced very modest job losses and have performed relatively well on most other economic indicators.

"38 of the top 100 metro areas avoided declines in home prices over the past year, even as prices nationwide dipped 6 percent." Most of these metro areas also experienced below-average employment declines, and lie in the less-affected parts of the "Manufacturing Belt" (Pennsylvania and upstate New York) and Sun Belt (Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana). They also exhibit below-average shares of properties in REO (real estate-owned) status due to bank foreclosure.

Notice how those with most generous welfare, high personal and corporate taxes and liberal policies are heading backwards?